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Yen Carry Trade in Negative rate Environment

Japan’s Carry Trade

More Central Bank Insanity

Written by Geoffrey Pike

Posted May 13, 2016

As Japan and other countries experiment with negative interest rates, the central bankers of the world may get more than they bargained for. Japan is the perfect experiment right now for Americans to watch. It should provide an example of what not to do.

Japan should be the dream of people like Paul Krugman, who think the answer to every problem is to create more money and run bigger deficits. Japan has plenty of that going on.

Japan’s debt-to-GDP far exceeds 200%, which makes Greece look like a fiscally responsible paradise in comparison. Japan has had its digital money-printing machine working overtime, while the central planners continue to push interest rates down.

 

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/japans-carry-trade/8165

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Bloomberg:Bonds Trounce Stocks as Aussie Yield Latest to Drop to a Record

CH:  Dislocations continue!

 

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Australian benchmark bond yields fell to an all-time low as bonds trounce stocks around the world.

The Australian 10-year note’s yield fell as far as 2.20 percent, a record based on data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1969. Bonds are rallying after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate to an unprecedented 1.75 percent and reduced its inflation forecast earlier this month.

 

http://goo.gl/1cRjtn

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Financial Times: Negative Interest Rates Poisoning German Pension Funds

Alfred Gohdes, chief actuary in the Frankfurt office of Willis Towers Watson, the world’s largest adviser to institutional investors, described Bafin’s intervention as “unusual”.

He said: “In Germany only one pension fund has cut benefits previously. This happened more than 10 years ago. Now there is a strong possibility of benefits being cut in Germany if low rates continue. It is a slow poisoning [of the pension system].”

 

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http://goo.gl/4OanXD

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World Bank on Negative Interest Rates: Really Scary 9-Page Report

CH: Never have the warning signals for a financial disaster of biblical proportions  been so obvious and extant!!!

Read Here:  Negative Interest Rates in Europe: A Glance at Their Causes and Implications

•Excerpt on Fair Value from World Bank Report

Anomalies in the valuation of returns and payment streams.

As interest rates approach zero, the calculation of present values of streams of cash flows becomes increasingly sensitive to the discount rate.7 Indeed, the present value of any stream can be made arbitrarily large by choosing a low enough discount rate. This becomes a contentious issue in the negotiation of fair value in legal settlements. As discount rates of zero or less have no economic meaning, a prolonged period of negative interest rates would create large ambiguities for the valuation of assets and liabilities

 

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The Washington Times: The Madness of Negative Interest Rates

 

By Richard W. Rahn

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Would you like for the bank to give you a check each month for your mortgage interest payment rather than you paying the bank interest? As mad as that question seems, the fact is that some homeowners in Denmark are now receiving checks each month because their mortgages have negative (below zero) interest rates. A negative interest rate is the situation in which the lenders pay you to borrow money from them. A number of central banks now have negative interest rates, including Japan, the European Central Bank, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland and others — all done in the hope of increasing inflation (which is more madness). The chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve has said she is not ruling out negative interest rates.

http://goo.gl/1btujQ

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Understanding Negative Interest Rates (once again)

 

Is it just me? I must be missing something

Time to start paying attention to what negative interest rates really mean:  (Just ask Larry Fink)

Screen Shot 2016-04-12 at 10.07.14 PMThe financial press is full of articles on the dangers of this policy. These unconventional moves have provoked a lot of criticism, especially from the banking community who fear a strangulation of normal banking activities. A lot has been written about the dangers that NIR pose to the stability of banks and to the possible harm to savers and investors alike. This article is an attempt to put the whole question of NIR into a more balanced perspective. To begin with, it is important to have some background to why and how NIRs have come to characterize so much of government debt

http://goo.gl/TYh53D

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Larry Fink, the World’s Largest Investor Thinks Negative Interest Rates Could Be Disasterous

 

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The world’s largest investor says negative rates are breeding a disaster for the economy

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http://goo.gl/lh1Dlm

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Five things retirees need to know about negative interest rates

Market Watch:

The concept of a negative interest rate is one that would be considered unthinkable just aew years ago. Yet today, around a third of global government debt offers a negative yield. The consequences are widespread. Financial textbooks are being rewritten, companies are asking vendors to postpone payment, and banks are even rewriting software code.

1. What is a negative interest rate?

2. Why would a central bank pursue a negative interest rate strategy?

3. Why would any rational investor accept a negative yield?

4. What are the implications for retirees?

5. Should retirees be worried?

http://goo.gl/g3sh4H

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Opinion: Negative interest rates put the global economy on a razor’s edge

Negative interest rates, which central banks in several countries have implemented as a way to spur economic growth, is a radical move. In this three-part series, ‘Negative Thinking,’ commentator Satyajit Das examines this policy and the risk it carries.

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Will the world’s central banks lose their balance(s)?

Several of the world’s central banks have crossed the Rubicon, commencing a high-risk experiment with negative interest rates. The intent is clear: reduce debt by confiscation and transfer wealth from savers to borrowers. This is ultimately an admission of defeat, as traditional means of bringing excessive debt under control have failed.

http://goo.gl/IKRncK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Reuters: Japan’s negative interest rates a looming headache for central bank

Japan will surely need large doses of aspirin. But  massive doses of  Alka Seltzer might be in order for what is sure to be one badass hangover from negative interest rates. Pop Pop Fizz Fizz… Oh what a relief it is!

 

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Aspirin anyone?

http://goo.gl/imJDl2